Lectures - analysis of foreign policy. Analysis of the foreign policy of the state: basic approaches and methods (35) The difference between world politics and international relations
Section 7
Successful political activity is only when there is a constantly carried out political analysis, on the basis of which a certain forecast is made, an action strategy is built and the subject (participant) of the political process is consulted.
7.1. Political analysis and political forecasting
Political Analysis: Features of Implementation. Political phenomena are not random and isolated from each other. All phenomena of political life are closely related and interdependent. In addition, they also have close ties with demographic, economic, legal and other social relations in society. Those. political practice cannot be imagined without political analysis.
Political analysis (from the Greek. analysis - decomposition, division) is: 1) a method that involves the mental decomposition of political phenomena into separate components; 2) a set of methods and techniques for applied research of the political situation.
The above can hardly be called an unambiguous definition of the concept of "political analysis", which would be the closest to the essence of political management. The following definition is best suited here: political analysis is the process of collecting and generalizing information about the political system as a whole and its individual components, identifying connections, interdependence and mechanisms of interaction between the subjects of the political process, its patterns, analogues and determinants in order to predict directions and future results, the consequences of political actions and their influence on the development of society.
The key concept of political analysis is a political idea as a form of understanding political reality.
We find the beginning of political analysis in religious myths and legends (more than 5 thousand years ago), later in the myths of Ancient Greece, India, Ancient China and Rome. This analysis took the form of philosophical treatises, specific statements or interpretations of laws, ethical norms, etc.
During the Middle Ages, Aurelius Augustine, Thomas Aquinas, N. Machiavelli, T. Hobbes, J. Locke, C. Montesquieu, J. -J. Rousseau, A. de Tocqueville and others.
Later (XIX century) political analysis in terms of the methodology of studying politics, its components, political processes was deeply developed by K. Marx, M. Weber, V. Pareto, G. Mosca, and in the XX century. - K. Popper, H. Arendt, S. Brzezinski, E. Fromm, G. Aron, G. Marcuse, D. Easton, G. Lassuel, other political scientists, social politicians, sociologists.
As the leading theoretical and applied branch in the complex of political sciences, political analytics, and therefore political analysis, formed in the twentieth century.
As an applied discipline, political analysis fulfills three main functions:
Descriptive (reflection of the political system, political phenomena and processes);
Regulatory (providing proposals, recommendations, forecasts regarding the practical solution of political issues and problems);
Predictive (modeling of political processes and their consequences in practical political activity).
The scientific tools for political analysis are:
Systematic approach (systematization of a set of objects, identification of their connections and interactions);
Structural and functional analysis (connections and interaction of groups of system objects);
Comparative analysis (comparison, identification of analogs, contradictions, differences, determination of dynamics in politics);
Mathematical and statistical analysis (presentation of socio-political phenomena, processes in the form of diagrams, diagrams, models).
Political analysis has a pronounced synergistic character and therefore most of the signs of consistency are inherent in it, that is, the broadest coverage of the subject of analysis.
Political analysis has two basic philosophical principles on which it is based and practically carried out:
The principle of interconnection of political phenomena. Such connections are: long and short, essential and insignificant, direct and indirect, accidental and necessary, internal and external;
The principle of continuous development (historicism). All political phenomena are constantly evolving (in time and space, genetically - from inception, formation, development and withering away). The principle of continuous development is often called the principle of consistency.
Political analysis has separate types (forms), among which the following are distinguished: data analysis, diachronic analysis, analysis of variance, document analysis, cluster analysis, cohort analysis, contextual analysis, correlation analysis, multivariate analysis, multivariate analysis, synchronous analysis, system analysis , structural analysis, etc.
Data analysis - an empirical analysis of the collected data on political phenomena and events, political life in order to obtain primary information, disclosure of certain connections between phenomena and data, are investigated.
Diachronic analysis is the analysis of political objects, phenomena, events, processes in their temporal space, that is, there is an opportunity and an attempt is made to look at the genesis of such objects and phenomena, to fix them in time.
Analysis of variance (by the method of G. Fisher) - allows you to identify systematic discrepancies between the results of direct political changes under certain conditions, which also change.
Analysis of documents is one of the most common in politics, since the first, and often the most accurate idea of specific political events, phenomena, objects of policy can be obtained as a result of in-depth analysis (often content analysis) of political documents (projects, decisions, appeals, programs , charters, leaflets, etc.).
Cluster analysis is a method of grouping certain data about politics, objects of politics, political activity into certain classes. Collected and distributed by classes, such data become closer to each other and, therefore, a more accurate overall picture of an object, event, etc.
Cohort analysis - analysis of individual social groups (population groups) in order to identify and fix the characteristic (and different from other groups) traits, characteristics, political actions, political behavior. Based on such analyzes, it is possible to draw appropriate conclusions and present long-term political forecasts.
Contextual analysis is used when there is a need to determine the individual characteristics of any political phenomenon or object of policy in the context of others.
Political analysis has three main components, for the sake of which it is carried out:
Analysis of the real political situation;
Forecast of the development of such a situation;
Making appropriate competent political decisions.
Political forecasting: essence and features. Any future (in the long term) political activity is naturally connected, follows from the past and present development of politics, political phenomena and actions. The carried out political analysis makes it possible to determine a set of possible options for realizing the goal, tasks in practical political activity, that is, to carry out a political forecast regarding the possible course of events and their result.
A forecast is a probabilistic scientifically grounded judgment about the prospects, possible states, paths, trends in the development of a certain phenomenon in the future and (or) about alternative paths and the timing of their implementation.
Forecast (in particular political) should not be confused with foresight. The latter has the character of a certain absolutized certainty.
Political forecasting is associated with a large number of political variables, so it is also completely different from political planning.
To understand the peculiarities of political forecasting, let us recall that forecasting in general is: a) a form of anticipatory reflection of something in scientific knowledge; b) the process of determining the prospects for the development of a certain phenomenon, an event, based on knowledge of the patterns of development and information about the past and the current state of this phenomenon or event.
The forecast assumes a certain modeling of phenomena, events, processes, the creation of mental images.
The objects of forecasting, as a rule, are processes, phenomena, events to which cognitive and practical human activity is directed. Therefore, depending on the nature of the objects, the objects of forecasting are distinguished social, economic, scientific-technical and political.
According to the purpose of developing a forecast (problem-target criterion), there are two main types of forecasts:
Search forecast - determination of possible states of a phenomenon in the future. This is a kind of retrospection, the projection of a modern phenomenon in the future;
Regulatory forecast - the search for ways, opportunities, means in order to achieve the desired, desired, expected state of the relevant phenomena. In this case, certain norms, incentives, ideals, etc. are set in advance as a basis.
In addition, forecasts are divided into: operational (current), briefly-, medium-, long- and distant strings (supra-strings).
The main ways of developing forecasts are:
Questionnaires (interviews, polls);
Extrapolation and interpolation (construction of time series of development of indicators of the predicted phenomenon);
Modeling (construction of search and normative models, taking into account the expected or desired change in the predicted phenomenon for a certain, predictable period, etc.).
Often in the forecasting process, some or all of these methods of forecasting are used.
Political forecasting is the process of developing scientifically sound reasoning about possible option the development of political events in the future, about alternative ways and timing of their implementation, as well as recommendations for practical activities in the context of a certain theoretical reality.
The object of political forecasting can be: political systems, political parties, authorities, political groups, individuals, that is, all subjects of politics, political process.
For the implementation of political forecasting, development and implementation of the strategic policy of any policy, a participant in the political process must necessarily have the so-called strategic thinking in politics. According to A. Valevsky, strategic political thinking is influenced and determined by the historical and cultural tradition of the people, the country, certain strategic interests, the hierarchy of strategic goals, etc.
Political forecasting, predictions are directly related to political probability, since any political action, phenomenon under certain conditions and circumstances is quite possible.
The most common in politics are logical, statistical and subjective probability.
Political probability is the emergence of a certain statement, a point of view, obtained as a result of logical actions.
Statistical probability exists when the corresponding frequency (periodicity) of repetition of phenomena, events, etc. is taken into account. For example, political strikes, which, under appropriate conditions, have taken place for some time recently.
Subjective probability - an assessment by an individual (sposterіgayuchoyu, actor) of the possibility of a certain event on the basis of repeated experience.
Political forecasting is not just a projection into the future, foresight of the expected result is scientifically grounded, comprehensive information about the future development of certain political processes and the development on this basis of the appropriate strategic and tactical foundations of political activity.
A political forecast is: a) a scientifically grounded judgment about the possible state of an object in the future and the ways of its development; b) the way of scientific substantiation of political decisions.
The philosophy of politics is considered the methodological basis of political forecasting, since only with its help it is possible to carry out a truly comprehensive, comprehensive analysis of political phenomena, events, processes, and predict their development. Recently, such a relatively new scientific discipline as political forecasting has begun to actively form.
Each political forecast has a corresponding degree of probability, possibility. Ideal forecasts do not objectively exist, although those who make a forecast always try to imagine it as the most accurate and most probable, that is, ideal.
The main goal of political forecasts: to get rid of undesirable, unexpected, unsatisfactory (for a specific subject of politics) development of political events; get used to the irreversible, something that can happen almost inevitably; accelerate the likely development of a specific political phenomenon, process in the desired direction.
Political forecasts come true with the aim of: determining the main trends in the development of international relations; predicting the development of political conflicts, the results of election campaigns; determining the popularity of political parties, public organizations, associations, individual leaders, statesmen, public figures, possible consequences a certain political decision, etc.
The main functions of political forecasting:
Normative. During forecasting, they adhere to certain indicators, norms as much as possible, try to implement a predictive model;
Orієntuvalna. We are talking about the determination by the subject of management of the most realistic, optimal areas of activity and about a selective approach to information;
Preventive. In this case, we are talking about warning the governing body, the subject of policy regarding possible and real deviations from the existing predictive model.
Types of political forecasts:
Scientific, normative, interval;
Short, medium, long term.
The latter are also specified in terms of time:
Operational (up to 1 month);
Short-term (up to 1 year);
Medium-term (from 1 to 5 years);
Long-term (from 5 to 15 years);
Strategic (extra-urgent) - up to 30 years.
There are also these types of political forecasting:
Internal political. As a rule, this is the forecasting of specific political events, the activities of the political institutions of society, the political processes taking place in it;
Foreign policy. This is forecasting in the field of international relations and foreign policy in general. At the same time, first of all, they assess and predict the general situation in the world, region, country, relations between countries, governments, etc.
Political forecasts can be of two types:
Search engines. This is the identification and clarification of those promising problems that can be tried to be solved precisely by political means, by the method of political management. A forecast (assumption) is made - what will happen in society, politics, provided that the really existing socio-political state, situation is preserved;
Regulatory. In this case, attention is focused on the ways, means, opportunities for changing the state of affairs.
Basic principles of political forecasting:
Consistency. In this case, politics, the political process are considered comprehensively, in their integrity, unity, as a certain set of independent directions (components) of forecasting;
Consistency. Independent directions (components), stages of a political forecast should be mutually consistent, interconnected, which ensures the greatest reliability forecast;
Continuity. As new data and information emerge, in time, the political forecast has to be continuously corrected, refined, deepened;
Verification. There is a need and a need to constantly determine the credibility of the developed policy forecast, what this principle is aimed at;
Alternativeity. Political life can and develops along many trajectories, directions, models, since the relationship between the subjects of politics is also too volatile and specific. That is, they must take into account (assume) all possible ways and features of the development of political relations, and on this basis foresee alternative models of political decisions and actions;
Profitability. To what extent the implementation of political projects, actions, decisions can be maximally implemented and effective.
The well-known Russian political scientist A. V. Sergeev identifies the following principles of political forecasting:
Attitude to socio-political reality as an objective reality. First of all, we are talking about forecasting the development of objective factors influencing the essence and nature of politics, political processes;
Holistic, systematic approach, i.e. one should try to take into account and consider all parts (subjects) of the political process systematically, holistically, in their unity, interaction;
Recognition of historical determinism, that is, the objective laws of the functioning and development of socio-political systems;
The complex nature of forecasting;
The class approach, which is concretized in the principle of partisanship. It means that forecasting is essential for political forecasting.
Political forecasts are made through the use of certain tools: questionnaires, public opinion polls. opinions, analysis of various sources of information, data, results of various studies (scientific, applied, special).
There are over 150 different methods of political forecasting, among which the most common are:
Verification (data validation);
iconic (figurative) modeling;
Analysis of publications;
Expert assessments;
Generating ideas;
Building scripts;
Interview.
So, the political forecasting toolkit consists mainly of various survey methods, qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing various data from a public opinion poll. opinions, special systems for the development of events, etc.
Recently, some rather interesting innovative methods of political analysis have been used in politics, among which the following stand out:
The method of collective expert assessment. To use it, special expert groups are created, which appoint experts and, based on their answers to specific questions, determine the final assessment as a kind of average judgment (the arithmetic mean of the assessments of all experts or the average normalized, weighted value of the assessment);
method of collective idea generation (brainstorming method). It's kind of like a discussion method. First, a group of brainstorming participants is formed (up to 15 people). Then a problem note is drawn up by the participant of the "brainstorming", on which further discussion is conducted (criticism, additions, submission for consideration of new thoughts, ideas, proposals). The next stage is the systematization of the developed ideas, their justification, explanation. After that, sound ideas can be criticized given the problems and obstacles to its implementation. At the final stage, the participants in the "brainstorming" make a list of those ideas and proposals that actually survived criticism and have a right to exist. “Brainstorming” can be carried out by several groups at the same time, in parallel, working on the development of the same problem;
Scripting method. The basis of this method is an attempt to establish a logical sequence of actions in politics, political process, in order to provide a practical solution to existing problems. This makes it possible to take into account the placement well. forces, plan a gradual approach to the forecast result.
The well-known Ukrainian political scientist V.P. Gorbatenko also names the following among the main methods of political forecasting:
Expert survey. Most often, we are talking about filling out special questionnaires by experts, and then processing them;
Historical analogy. Based on the transfer of certain patterns of historical development, similar events in time from other spheres of knowledge;
Contextual mapping. It is a systematic consideration of an object by means of a sequential or combined viewing, analysis and synthesis of all possible combinations of its components;
Grid graphics. Searching for and determining the shortest paths to a specific, outlined goal;
Goal tree. Dividing the object of knowledge into separate elements (components), hierarchically, logically linked;
Imitation. This is the construction, the creation of appropriate models (primarily mathematical) for the purpose of studying and verifying predictive decisions;
Operational modeling. Based on the application, use of the mathematical apparatus;
Analysis of mutual influences. Provides for the use of a kind of matrices of events that affect the development of the political situation or form the basis for the study of political problems;
Causal modeling. It is based on the establishment of appropriate causal relationships of known political events, phenomena;
Statistical modeling. This is development and analysis models, which are based on statistical material of the past and present;
Game method. It is used in direct preplanned political research, as well as for the verification of political forecasts.
This classification of political forecasting methods is the most complete of all known to us.
Making a political forecast is a system of appropriate step-by-step actions, namely:
Structural analysis of the relevant situation, or even the political system as a whole or its individual components;
Determination of the characteristics and nature of ties in the political process, the situation and dependencies between them;
Manifestation and determination of the main (dominant) tendencies, directions of development of political processes operating in the system;
Extrapolation of individual processes in relation to their development in the future;
Synthesis and interaction of the development of individual processes;
Preparation of a comprehensive forecast for the development of the political system of society, its individual components, etc.
It is possible to make a political forecast as realistic and reliable as possible only if the above actions are combined.
Political forecasts are made by political experts.
Political expertise in different countries is carried out in different ways, depending on many circumstances and historical and political traditions, the level of democratic development, the characteristics of political processes, etc. There are also special structures - public, state, which are institutions of political education, analysis and expertise, centers, laboratories.
Of great importance in individualcountries are given training, theoretical and practical training of political experts who, how as a rule, they are independent - they are not included in any subjects of politics, acting in accordance with specific orders for the implementation of political expertise.
The logical consequence of a political forecast is a political forecast.
In general, predictions are an opportunity to predict the development of the consequences of events, processes, phenomena. It is related to the process of cause and effect and relationships.
Prediction can be based on religious belief, astrology, life experience and scientific evidence. Political predictions are mainly based on scientific data and results and on in-depth analysis of social practice and political processes.
MO - This is a special type of social relations with a wide subjective composition, characterized by anarchism and going beyond the intra-social interactions of territorial entities. a set of political, economic, diplomatic, military, cultural, scientific and technical ties and relationships between peoples, states and associations of states.
Approaches to definition:
1. determination of the specifics of the participants.
2. Determination of the special nature of MO.
3.localization criterion
The definition of international relations as a variety of ties implies the need for their classification - the identification of types, types, levels and state.
Classification
1. based on class criteria
Relations of domination and subordination (relations in the era of feudalism and capitalism)
Relations of cooperation and mutual assistance (theory of the socialist world)
Transitional relations (relations between developing countries that have freed themselves from colonial dependence)
2. based on the general civilization criterion
3. by spheres of public life
Economic
Political
Military-strategic
Cultural
Ideological
4. based on interacting participants
Interstate relations
Inter-party relations
Relations between international organizations, TNCs, individuals
5. by the degree of development and intensity
High-level relationships
Middle-level relations
Low-level relationships
6. based on geopolitical criteria
Global / planetary
Regional
Subregional
7. according to the degree of tension
The relationship of stability and instability
A relationship of trust and enmity
Relations of cooperation and conflict
Relations of peace and war
interdisciplinary approach allows direct transfer of research methods from one scientific discipline to another. The transfer of methods is due to the detection of similarities in the studied subject areas. The result is an "interdisciplinary discipline" - biophysics, using an interdisciplinary approach. Other binary (dual) interdisciplinary disciplines are organized according to this principle. Continuing the example of biology, we can continue the list of such interdisciplinary disciplines - biochemistry, biomechanics, sociobiology, bionics, and many others. However, the use of "alien" disciplinary methodology rarely leads to a change in the disciplinary image of the research subject. It should be noted that, in order to preserve the boundaries of disciplinary boxes, there are always “leading” and “driven” disciplines in interdisciplinary research. All results, even those obtained using the "led" discipline methodology, are interpreted in terms of the disciplinary approach of the "lead" discipline. Therefore, the interdisciplinary approach is intended primarily for solving specific disciplinary problems, in the solution of which any particular discipline experiences conceptual and methodological difficulties.
The theory of international relations is one of the relatively young social science disciplines, although its origins can be found in the socio-political thought of past centuries and even millennia. Insofar as subject area of the theory of international relations- this is the sphere of politics, insofar as this science belongs to the field of political knowledge, moreover, until recently it was considered as one of the branches of political science.
Levels of Analysis and Research Methods in World Politics
3 levels of analysis:
♦ individual level ( analysis of the individual characteristics of people involved in the political process on the world stage).
♦ the level of an individual state (for example, the processes of making political decisions are studied, but from the point of view not of psychological characteristics, but of what is the mechanism of decision-making in a particular country)
♦ global level ( the study of both the interaction of states and non-state participants in the world political system).
Methods
quality
(using analytical procedures to study certain facts, processes, etc.)
- quantitative
(to identify certain numerical parameters)
- content analysis (content analysis),
- event analysis (event analysis).
* cognitive mapping
Transcript
1 A.V. Gukasov Theoretical Foundations of Foreign Policy Analysis of Modern States In the context of globalization, a separate state cannot exist in isolation, since in order to ensure sustainable development, it must constantly enter into various types of interactions with other actors in the system of international relations, the complex of which forms foreign policy. The foreign policy of modern states is a complex, multi-level process, and, accordingly, for its detailed study, it is necessary to analyze each of its levels. A number of researchers in the field of international relations have been involved in the development of various levels of foreign policy analysis. One of the first works in this area was published by R. Snyder, G. Brack and B. Sapin "Decision making as an approach to the study of international politics", in which they abandoned the understanding of the nation state as a metaphysical abstraction, while at the same time recognizing the state level of foreign policy analysis as fundamental and focusing on the process of making foreign policy decisions. A significant contribution to the development of the levels of analysis of foreign policy was made by the studies of G. Sprout and M. Sprout, who believed that it is wrong to talk about power in interstate relations without taking into account foreign policy, which they associated with strategies, decisions and goals. However, in contrast to R. Snyder, G. Braque and B. Sapin, G. Sprout and M. Sprout in their studies set priorities differently, believing that for a complete analysis of foreign policy, it is necessary to take into account the psychological environment in which individuals or groups involved in making foreign policy decisions. Despite the significant contribution of the above works to the general theory of foreign policy, they were mainly focused on the study of its individual levels, thereby not subjecting this political science category to a comprehensive analysis. In this regard, significant is the work of J. Rosenau "The pre-theory and theory of foreign policy", in which the author came to the conclusion that for a better understanding of the category "foreign policy" it is necessary to develop a generalizing theory, which, according to
2 in his opinion, is to integrate information obtained as a result of analysis at various levels: from the individual characteristics of a political leader to the system of international relations. This approach makes it possible to comprehensively study foreign policy from the point of view of the main levels of analysis, systematizing the data obtained and not being limited by the framework of the study of only one of the levels. Rosenau's work was one of the first of its kind and made a significant contribution to the theory of tiered analysis of foreign policy. A position similar to that of Rosenau is taken by K. Waltz, who in his work "Man, State and War: A Theoretical Analysis", examining the nature of international conflicts, analyzed it in three categories. The first category is human behavior, within the framework of which political leaders are characterized, their personal qualities, motives for actions and decisions that can lead to an escalation of an international conflict are analyzed. The second category is the internal structure of the state, within which attention is focused on the analysis of the type of government, economic model, political groups, etc. The third category is the system of international relations, which the author defined as anarchic, since it lacks a mechanism for governing states. Waltz's ideas were developed by the American political scientist D. Singer in his work "The problem of the level of analysis in international relations", in which he thoroughly investigated the international system and the state as levels of analysis of international relations. Singer believed that the systemic level of analysis makes it possible to fully analyze the complex of international relations, and the state level of analysis to analyze in detail international relations from the point of view of a sovereign state, focusing on the fact that, being the main actor in international relations, they can independently choose the direction of their own line of policy ... A great contribution to the study of the levels of foreign policy analysis was made by V. Hudson's work "Analysis of foreign policy: classical and modern theories", in which five levels of analysis were identified. At the first level, the individual foreign policy decision-making is investigated, the basis of which is the political psychology of the leader and his role in the formation and implementation of foreign policy. At the second level, group adoption of foreign policy decisions is considered, which is based on the process of organizing interaction between the subjects of groups participating in the formation and implementation of foreign policy. At the third level, sub-
3 the role of cultural, social and national identities in the process of making foreign policy decisions is analyzed. The fourth level examines the influence of the internal policy of the state on the foreign policy process. At the fifth level, an analysis of the distinctive features of the state such as scale, natural and demographic resources, geographic location, political system, military and economic potential, which determine the nature of foreign policy, is carried out, as well as the system of international relations that has a significant impact on it. The work of Russian scientists A.D. Bogaturova, N.A. Kosolapova, M.A. Khrustaleva "Essays on Theory and Political Analysis of International Relations." In their work, the authors, noting the importance of other levels of analysis, focused on the study of the system level, since it allows you to apply applied methods and techniques of analysis in various combinations, allowing you to more fully explore international relations and world politics, and also contributes to more accurate forecasting in this area. The systemic level of analysis allowed the authors to analyze the stability, stability and nature of the evolution of the modern system of international relations, to study its regional subsystems, and also to analyze globalization and its impact on the world political system. Based on the study of various levels of analysis carried out in works related to this issue, in the most general form, three main levels of foreign policy analysis can be distinguished: individual, state and systemic. Within the framework of the individual level of foreign policy analysis, attention is focused on decisions made by individuals who participate in the process of forming and implementing foreign policy. This type of analysis mainly involves the study of the characteristics, desires and ideals of these individuals and the influence they have on foreign policy decision-making. Nevertheless, despite the importance of the human factor, the process of formation and implementation of foreign policy largely depends on the structure of the political system of the state, which is studied at the state level of foreign policy analysis. This level of analysis consists in the study of the cultural, civilizational and historical traditions of the state, as well as its
4 geopolitical positions, which together make it possible to explain the nature of the state's foreign policy. Within the framework of this level of analysis, it is no less important to study the mechanisms of foreign policy formation, i.e. those domestic actors who participate in this process. In this regard, the importance of studying the nature of the political regime of the state is actualized, on which the number of actors involved in the formation and implementation of foreign policy, as well as the role of the political leader in this process, directly depends. In addition to the above two levels of analysis, the importance of the systemic level of foreign policy analysis is also relevant, which is based on the understanding that all states operate in a global socio-economic and political-geographical environment and that the specific characteristics of this system largely determine the model of interaction between them. Within the framework of this approach, the analysis of the influence of the system of international relations on the foreign policy of the state is carried out, focusing on how states react to changes within this system. In this case, one of the most important factors is the power of the state in the world political system, which is the basis for the formulation of national interests and determines its behavior in the world arena. Based on the above analysis, we can conclude that the category "foreign policy" and its analysis do not lose their relevance at the present stage. There is no doubt that the processes of globalization and regionalization are making their own adjustments to the understanding of this category. Nevertheless, in modern conditions, the system of international relations is formed and regulated mainly through the foreign policy of states, which is based on the category of "national interest". References 1. Snyder R., Bruck H., Sapin B. Decision-Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, p. 2. Sprout H., Sprout M. Man-Milieu Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, p. 3. Rosenau J. The Study of World Politics: Theoretical and Methodological Challenges. N.Y .: Routledge, P Waltz K. Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis. N.Y .: Columbia University Press, p. 5. Singer D. The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations // World Politics P
5 6. Hudson V. Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory. Lanham: The Rowman and Littlefield Publishing Group, p. 7. Bogaturov A.D., Kosolapov N.A., Khrustalev M.A. Essays on the theory and political analysis of international relations. M .: NOFMO, p.
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Structure and features of common methods
political analysis
The foundations of the methodological diversity of political analysis are largely predetermined, on the one hand, by its features as an applied discipline; and, on the other hand, by the specifics of political problems as a subject of analysis. The success of the application of certain methods of displaying the situation in political analysis largely depends on their ability to maintain efficiency and innovation; offer relatively simple actions that do not require significant time, organizational and other costs; be flexible enough, easily adaptable to various problem situations; combine the advantages of informal qualitative argumentation with the advantages of formalized quantitative calculations.
In general, two groups of methods of political analysis can be distinguished - general and specific. General methods predetermine the direction, perspective and methodological support of all stages of political analysis. These include event analysis (English, event - an event), situational analysis and some others.
The private ones include standard methods borrowed from statistics, sociology, economics and other disciplines; their application in various combinations at individual stages (stages) of political analysis is determined by specific feasibility, for example, the nature of the problem, the perspective of the study, the availability of data, the availability of organizational and other resources, etc. and factor analysis, content analysis, mathematical modeling, cost-benefit analysis, etc.
Among the general methods that help to form the most important assessments and ways of interpreting the situation, event analysis is of paramount importance, within the framework of which the political process is presented as an event series, presented, for example, in the form of speeches by political leaders, mass demonstrations, elections, the adoption of regulations, political assassinations, etc., each of which has a particular impact on the situation as a whole and behind each of which are specific actors with their own interests, etc. Thus, this method allows you to streamline the flow of political events (as opposed to imposing a ready-made conceptual scheme on a situation, which often leads to inadequate results), offering methodological tools that help to structure them in such a way that objective tendencies, sometimes hidden from the actors themselves, appear through a series of phenomena. persons of this process. As a result, it becomes possible to develop an objective assessment, formulate and substantiate a forecast of the development of events.
The typical scheme of this method of analysis, in particular, assumes:
identification of participants in the political process and non-political actors behind each of the participants or influencing the process as a whole;
assessment of the levels of political influence and other resources of each of the participants in the events and the forces supporting him;
the establishment of strategic goals and tactical tasks of the participants in the political process, an assessment of the alignment of political forces and the configuration of interests;
elucidation of possible strategic alliances and tactical coalitions, the formation of scenarios for the development of events and an assessment of the nature of the reaction of participants and subjects of the political process to certain scenarios of the development of the political situation;
formulating alternative actions and assessing the likelihood of their success;
the formation of a holistic strategy based on optimal options for action, taking into account the forecast of the development of the political situation, as well as the means and resources for their implementation.
Thus, the event analysis method presupposes a sequential description of the following scheme: political situation - events - environment - participants (their resources, interests, relationships) - activity restrictions - goals and objectives (success / failure criteria) - alternative solutions - scenarios and forecasts - strategy of action.
As an example of the applied application of event analysis, one can mention the development carried out by the Institute for Analysis and Management of Conflicts and Stability (IAUCS) within the framework of the project "Conflict and Stability Management System" (SAUKS-Russia). Further (in an abbreviated and adapted form), a basic rubrication scheme for event-by-event data entry into the system is given.
Making records in the database in accordance with the given headings allows you to build a flexible system of indices that would reflect the dynamics of events and allow you to make informed conclusions about emerging trends that reflect the general state of political stability in a particular region, as well as their threshold values.
Situational analysis systems like the one described above allow solving complex applied problems related to information support of the political decision-making process. The minimum task is to monitor the political situation, to track changes in the key parameters of the situation. The task of a higher level is to forecast its development, build and test scenarios. Finally, the maximum task is to ensure the automated generation of complex strategies for managing the political process both in its individual segments and in general on the basis of data monitoring. And although today satisfactory applied solutions at the level of the maximum problem have not yet been proposed, it can be expected that the accelerating progress in the field of computer and neural technologies, artificial intelligence, mathematical modeling and system analysis will allow in the foreseeable future to reach the level of solutions for these most complex tasks.
Continuation of scheme 1
Private methods
political analysis
The specificity of private methods of political analysis is manifested in their compliance with the structure of the process of political analysis, in taking into account the conditions and limitations of their application at the most important stages of studying the situation, as well as in the analytical and applied possibilities of their application.
Thus, the formulation and conceptualization of the problem presupposes the use of methods of sample research, content analysis, interviewing, testing, experimental methods that allow expanding the information base of political analysis. At the same time, descriptive, qualitative and other methods are also widely used - historical, normative, structural-functional, systemic, institutional and others, which make it possible to "build" the idea of the problem into a wide historical context.
A significant complication of methods is associated with operationalization procedures, due to which various variables are assigned certain values. Properly carried out operationalization helps to increase the level of measurement of indicators, which allows in the future to use mathematical methods high level difficulties.
Models of the relationship of dependent and independent variables
Thus, correlation analysis, including linear and multiple regression methods, allows you to measure the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Remaining a standard and necessary condition for solving more complex problems using higher-order methods, the regression method does not allow, nevertheless, to display real cause-and-effect relationships between variables. A typical relationship model from standard regression analysis is shown in Figure 2a.
In a real situation, however, the independent variables (X1, X2) can influence each other, as well as the dependent variable (X3), and this influence can be both direct and inverse 2b, p.
An example of multivariate statistical analysis that makes it possible to assess the accuracy of such models by empirical assessment of the direct and indirect effects of one variable on another is the path analysis. It distinguishes between endogenous (partially determined by the internal variables of a given model) and exogenous (completely determined by factors external to this model) variables. Here they operate with the concept of a recursive model, which means that all relationships between variables are unidirectional (scheme 2b), as well as a non-recursive model in which there is a feedback (scheme 2c) between any variables. Due to this, opportunities are created for the use of various methods for calculating the variants of the statistical relationship between variables.
An important advantage of pat analysis is that it allows us to judge not only whether the variables in our model are related exactly as we assumed, but also about the relative influence of each variable on other variables in this model. Knowing this, we can develop recommendations to help direct practical efforts to change the very variable that has the greatest impact and thereby ensures the most effective and efficient use of our efforts.
Factor analysis, or the method of multivariate mathematical statistics, takes an important place among private methods, with the help of which, based on the measurement of pairwise correlations between the signs of a situation, it is possible to obtain a set of new, aggregated variables that cannot be measured directly; these aggregated variables are called factors (Scheme 3).
The relationship between observed traits and latency
factors: general (F) and specific (U)
For example, this scheme makes it possible to explain the correlations between the observed features (z) on the basis of the assumption of the influence on them of several "latent" (hidden) factors (F - general, U - specific). At the same time, these factors have a different effect (factor load) on the change in one or another observed feature. Factor loadings are usually the result of a computational procedure, subject to interpretation.
When modeling a problem situation, as a rule, methods of mathematical and computer simulation are used, thanks to which the analyst can adopt many of the methods developed in logic, statistics, physics, economics and other branches of knowledge and apply them to the study of political behavior. Mathematical models are clear and explicit in form and leave no ambiguity about the supposed connections between phenomena; they make it possible to reproduce the events of the past, present, as well as the probable future, and at the same time to check the action of forces in those processes, the real course of which is difficult or even impossible to carry out in modern conditions and conditions (for example, a global thermonuclear conflict). The models used in this kind of political analysis can be divided into three main groups:
deterministic (causal) models, in which the causal relationships of the system under study are mathematically described;
probabilistic models based on the rational choice methodology (i.e. on the assumption that the subject makes a decision based on the ratio of expected benefits and costs multiplied by the probability of their occurrence);
3) optimization models based on the assumption that some variables or situations in the process under study should be maximized or minimized.
An important stage in the analytical process is the setting of goals, which, according to one of the classics of political analysis A. Vil-dawski, are “multiple, contradictory and vague”. At the same time, methods are used to translate general abstract goals into more specific tasks, conditions and specific ways to achieve them are formulated. At the same time, the tasks themselves are mainly understood as the conditions that must be satisfied, or as the resources necessary to achieve the goal. At the same time, specific measures of the degree of achievement of a particular goal serve as criteria for evaluating alternative solutions. The formalized technique used at this stage is often expert review(such its application as building a tree of goals).
Solving these problems is inextricably linked with the formulation of forecasts and the selection of the most adequate alternatives. A standardized method for evaluating political alternatives, which has been widely used in the practice of political analysis abroad, is the cost-benefit analysis (AVI). This method can be the main one when efficiency seems to be the only meaningful goal. Conceptually, AVI is relatively simple: it reduces all possible alternatives to a monetary form, assuming the choice of the one that generates the greatest benefits. Thus, within the framework of AVI, even if we have different goals in the ordinary sense of the word, they can be reduced to benefits and costs, which, in turn, can be expressed in monetary terms.
In the case when it is necessary to choose solutions based on several criteria, the task is to find a compromise between them so that the “customer” can assess to what extent he shares the analyst's preferences. One such method, the satisfactory alternatives method, involves the determination of acceptable thresholds. When goals are achieved, after defining acceptable threshold values for several criteria, those alternatives that do not correspond to them are screened out (the familiar formula "pass-fail"). The problem arises if none of the alternatives meet the thresholds - then either better alternatives need to be developed or the thresholds should be lowered (which, as a rule, is what happens).
The method of dominant alternatives serves the same purposes, which in turn presupposes an ordinal ranking of each alternative according to each of the criteria (that is, this is already an “exam” with “grades”). An alternative is considered optimal if it is superior to at least one alternative and not inferior to all others. The elimination method can be used to identify one or more of these alternatives that equally satisfy our criteria.
This method of dominant alternatives may not always serve as a way to identify the optimal solution. However, it is very useful in the following situations: a) if we are dealing with a large number of alternatives, a significant part of which should be eliminated for further work; b) if preferences can be ordered, but cannot be expressed in an interval scale; c) if the alternatives are to be compared in terms of both quantitative and qualitative criteria; d) if we are limited in time.
Using the method of equivalent alternatives, one of the criteria is selected, expressed in a quantitative scale (usually in monetary terms), and a conversion procedure is performed for each alternative, based on how much of the selected criterion we could “donate” to compensate for the difference in other criteria. For example, we have two alternative solutions (a) and (b), which we evaluate according to two criteria: budget revenues and environmental damage. If we choose the first criterion as the basic one, then the conversion procedure boils down to assessing in monetary terms the difference in environmental damage inherent in each of the alternatives, and then subtracting the resulting value from the amount of budget revenues expected from the alternative with the greatest probable damage, after which compare the remaining values and make a choice between (a) and (b). The alternative with the highest aggregate value is recognized as the best.
Within the framework of political analysis, various mathematical methods have been developed, including computer programs that develop this method in the direction of greater formal rigor. As a rule, these developed techniques involve the determination of the objective function of the decision maker: a function that contains a mathematical description of the weight coefficients expressing the relative importance of each of the criteria, and allows you to maximize or minimize various combinations of their values.
The limitation of these methods lies in the fact that in many cases several subjects are directly or indirectly involved in the decision-making process with different ideas about the priority of a particular criterion. For a number of reasons, it is easier to reach collective agreement on a specific alternative than on the weights of individual criteria.
Because of this, less formalized methods for comparing alternatives have found wide application in political analysis, for example: the Geller matrix, in which each column represents one alternative, each row is an evaluation criterion. The impacts of alternatives for each of the criteria are expressed in “natural” form: in quantitative (hours, tons, cubic meters, person-days) and qualitative values (“problems with the trade union are possible” or “foreign policy complications are inevitable”). The degree to which each alternative satisfies this criterion is indicated by a different color, frame, shading, or other visual means, in accordance with the pattern "best solution - second (third, etc.) best solution - worst solution". Such a matrix allows us to identify the various consequences of alternatives - both quantitative and qualitative. It provides the client or decision-makers with the opportunity to make a decision on their own, attributing their own weight preferences to each criterion.
So, if, on the whole, systematize the main methodological apparatus of political analysis in accordance with the main tasks that arise at the most important stages of the analytical process, then you can get the following picture:
Legend:
A - formulation of the problem, B conceptualization of the problem, C operationalization, D modeling, E determination of goals and objectives, F determination of alternative solutions, G forecasting and evaluation, H comparison of alternatives, I formulation of recommendations, S collection of information.
1 - historical, normative, institutional, systemic, structural and functional, etc.; 2 - survey, interview, testing, scaling, etc .; 3 - correlation analysis, factor analysis, analysis of time frames, etc .; 4 - analysis of benefits and costs, cost efficiency analysis, macro and microeconomic theories; 5 - mathematical modeling; 6 - Delphi method, brainstorming, forecasting and scenario building methods; 7 ~~ laboratory and field experiments, quasi-experimental methods.
Political analysis has its concrete embodiment and expression in the process of political consultation.
DIFFERENCE OF WORLD POLICY FROM INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
First, until now, such a difference, according to a number of researchers, is rather arbitrary, and both concepts are often used in political literature as synonyms, although for us they represent independent objects of cognition.
Secondly, in the study of international relations, attention is mainly focused on the relationship of states. The central subject of international relations research has been (and to a large extent remain) sovereign states, which, according to A. Wolfers' metaphor, collide on the world stage like billiard balls.
World politics explores a wider range of actors and issues (states, governmental and non-governmental organizations, regions, transnational corporations, individuals)... “It is obvious that the subject of the study of world politics is much broader, more heterogeneous and more complex than the one that is engaged in traditional international relations,” we read in one of the scientific publications.
Third, in most modern studies, international relations appear as a part of world politics. World politics is seen as the core, as the base of international relations.
Fourthly, another of the fundamental differences between world politics as a scientific direction and international relations is that world politics historically arose later than international relations.
Based on the foregoing, after clarifying the essence of world politics and international relations, their characteristics and distinctive features we can now give a definition of the subject of "World politics and international relations": "World politics and international relations" is an independent educational and scientific discipline that studies theory and practice, patterns of interaction, cooperation, both of individual states and intergovernmental organizations, international non-governmental organizations, transnational corporations, regions, individuals, and other participants in the global political process in the economic, political, legal, diplomatic, military, humanitarian, cultural and other spheres.
As already noted, world politics and international relations cover a very wide range of problems and participants in international communication and interaction. The researcher is always faced with the question: how to explain this or that world phenomenon or event caused by a number of factors, which, moreover, has many aspects? In this regard, a methodological question arises about how to identify cause-and-effect relationships, to give a deep and meaningful analysis of world politics, international relations, phenomena and events that are part of the world process.
As an illustration to what has just been said, we will use the example of the Englishman Barry Buzan, who writes that the reasons for the outbreak of World War II can be sought in the desire for revenge in Germany, and in the weakness of France, and in the personal characteristics of Stalin or Hitler, and in the instability of the international system. relations of the late 1930s in general. In other words, an explanation for any event in international life can be found at the level of individual politicians, states, and the entire world system.
In the late 1950s. under the influence scientism(from Latin scientia - science; "scientism" - absolutization of the role of science in the system of culture, in the spiritual life of society) in international studies the idea arose of the need to introduce the concept of levels of analysis.
Term "Levels of analysis" became widely used thanks to the article by the American researcher J. D. Singer "The problem of levels of analysis in international relations" , published in 1961. He identified two levels of analysis - the international system as a whole and the level of an individual state.
Naturally, this methodological approach to the search for patterns in the development of world politics of international relations has been improving all these years.
Currently, as a rule, three levels of analysis are distinguished and used:
individual level ;
individual state level ;
global level.
The first level is the level of the individual, involves an analysis of the individual characteristics of people involved in the political process on the world stage. Most of the research in this area is carried out within the framework of political psychology, where two sublevels are often distinguished: the political elite and the masses.
At the second level - individual states -, for example, the processes of political decision-making are investigated, but from the point of view not of the psychological characteristics of this or that individual, but of what is the mechanism for making political decisions in the sphere of international life in this or that country.
Thus, in the studies of the American author R.N. Lebow found that domestic pressure can force politicians to base their vision of foreign policy on assumptions and expectations that are far from reality. Other studies have shown that the role of military and civilians in international decision-making is also important. This level of analysis involves consideration of economic, military, domestic political and other issues that determine the formation of foreign policy and affect global processes.
The global level of analysis of world politics and international relations is perhaps the most complex. It involves the study of both the interactions between states and non-state participants in the world political system. The role of individual structural elements in the formation and functioning of this system is revealed, the issues of cooperation and competition of various actors are investigated, and the development trends of the system itself are determined.
Other important components of ongoing international research are data and choice method.
It is customary to distinguish primary and secondary data. TO primary usually include such as statements and speeches of politicians, official documents and other sources of information: statistics, historical facts, etc. TO secondary data belongs to materials based on primary data and reflected in scientific publications.
Research methods (techniques, methods of cognition) used in world politics, as well as in international relations, are divided into two large groups: quality and quantitative.
Qualitative methods: historical and sociological, observation, comparison, study of documents, etc.
Qualitative methods involve the use of analytical procedures to study certain facts, processes, etc. Previously, these methods were often called historical and descriptive, involving an appeal to historical knowledge, as well as intuitive logical, those. focused on scientific work in the form of essays. Today they are widely used in the study of world politics and international relations.
Quantitative methods appeared in international studies later than qualitative ones (for this reason, the scientists who used them were called modernists) and were intended to identify certain numerical parameters. Their use was especially popular in the 1960s. At that time, many mathematicians were involved in the study of social sciences and international relations, in particular: then it seemed that such an approach would avoid subjectivity in research.
Researchers who use quantitative methods pay special attention to such a criterion as validity , those. determining whether the method actually provides the information that is needed. Another important parameter when choosing a method is its reliability. She assumes that similar results will be obtained with this method by another researcher.
Basic methods of qualitative analysis: content analysis, event analysis, cognitive mapping. They are also called explicative methods.
Most common among quantitative research methods content analysis(content analysis) as well as event analysis(event analysis).
The first, introduced by the American political scientist G. Lasswell, is a study of the text in terms of the frequency of occurrence of certain key words and phrases in it. For example, having analyzed in this way the articles published in one of the newspapers, G. Lasswell showed her pro-fascist orientation, which served as a pretext for the trial of the issue of closing the newspaper.
Choosing the right keywords is important when using content analysis. The limitation on the use of content analysis is imposed by the problem of context. If an article, speech, document and similar texts are written in the so-called Aesopian language, where not so much the words themselves are significant, but the context, then they are difficult to research using content analysis.
Event analysis is focused on identifying the frequency of occurrence of certain events. As in the case of content analysis, the criteria by which events are taken into account and classified are initially determined. In other words, some analogs of "keywords" are identified that characterize the frequency, intensity, duration of an event (for example, conflict relations). Further, the dynamics of the development of the process is determined. Using event analysis, one can, in particular, trace the dynamics of concessions in negotiations, determine the speed at which they are made, which of the participants is the first to make compromise decisions, etc. The event analysis method was developed in the works of E. Azar , L. Bloomfield , as well as some other authors and involves the creation of a fairly large bank of event data.
Less common than previous methods, cognitive mapping. This method was used in the works of O. Holsty , P. Axelrod et al. It is based on the ideas of cognitive psychologists, according to which, to understand behavior, it is extremely important to know how a person perceives and organizes the information received. In international studies, this method is focused on the study of the so-called "natural logic", primarily political figures. The bottom line is that on the basis of the texts of speeches, key categories are identified that are used by a particular politician, and cause-and-effect relationships are determined between them. Thus, the American researchers M. Bonham and M. Shapiro , after analyzing the texts of the speeches of politicians, they made a forecast regarding their behavior in the Middle East conflict.
Quantitative methods are quite labor intensive. This limited their use from the very beginning. Attention to quantitative methods was again attracted in connection with the widespread introduction of computer technology, which allows, to a certain extent, to solve the problem of labor intensity of work and to give a quick quantitative assessment. For example, computer processing of text allows you to quickly conduct content analysis. At the same time, researchers began to pay more attention to the problem of interpreting the data obtained.
In the meantime, in the mainstream of qualitative methods, procedures began to be introduced that provide for some formalized moments, but from the point of view of not so much quantitative assessments as the organization of research. During its implementation, in a number of cases, the requirements for the organization of work, the formulation and substantiation of the hypothesis, which is typical for the natural sciences, began to be taken into account.
Also developed situational analyzes, which are seminars of experts at which an analysis of the situation is made, key points are identified, and forecasts are made regarding possible scenarios for further development. Situational analyzes are widespread, especially in scientific and practical organizations and institutions.
In addition, analytical procedures such as case analysis(English: case study). They provide for the application of theoretical principles in the study of specific events in the world arena. All this made the concepts of "logical-descriptive" and "historical-intuitive" approaches obsolete.
At present, the dichotomy of "quantitative - qualitative" methods has generally been removed in international studies. Accordingly, the division of researchers into modernists and traditionalists is also a thing of the past. Many authors, including Russian ones, pay attention to this fact. For example, P.A. Tsygankov rightly points out the illegality of opposing quantitative and qualitative methods, which not only do not exclude, but, on the contrary, complement each other.
Advantages and disadvantages of various methods, the need for their combination and relativity.
Let's draw the following conclusions from the lecture:
1. World politics and international relations can be viewed as a process, as an activity, as a science and academic discipline.
2. "World politics and international relations" is an independent educational and scientific discipline that studies theory and practice, patterns of interaction, cooperation, both of individual states and intergovernmental organizations, international non-governmental organizations, transnational corporations, regions, individuals, and other participants in the world political process in the economic, political, legal, diplomatic, military, humanitarian, cultural and other spheres.
3. "World politics and international relations" involves the use of different levels of analysis, data and research methods.
